THE MEXICAN AMERICAN WAR Chavez jr v Vera II

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr v Brian Vera  II

March 1
HBO Boxing
12 rounds 168lbs weight limit
PREDICTION: Chavez decision or KO (Vera’s granite chin permitting)

The notion of ‘controversial’ decisions has become all too commonplace in boxing. The first fight between Julio Cesar Chavez jr and Brian Vera ended in a 10 round decision win for Chavez. Many were ‘outraged’ by this result and felt the judges had ‘robbed’ Vera. However, Vera’s only claim to victory would be his much higher work rate and ability to absorb power shots with his granite chin. Chavez boxed with much more skill and intelligence.

A closer look at the first fight will reveal the subtle things Chavez did to outbox Vera.

Chavez came out moving quite well and Vera had trouble finding him. Though Vera kept firing away he only landed a low percentage of punches. With patience and intelligence Chavez picked his spots and was able to get through Vera’s guard repeatedly. He did this by disguising his punches.

In the following video Chavez lands repeatedly with his left hook. He initially mixes up his punches with shots to the body, the head and the occasional jab. Vera doesn’t know what’s coming next. Chavez disguises his punches by starting his swing low and ending high. Watch as Vera moves his right glove away from his chin to block what looks like a body shot or jab only to take a clean left hook to the chin. This happens 7 times in the first 5 rounds.


Vera in contrast was a whirlwind of activity. However he never disguised his punches so Chavez was able to see them coming. In the following video Vera throws a lot of hard shots but they are very predictable. Chavez can see where they are going to land and blocks pretty much all of them by keeping a tight guard. Also notice Vera putting full effort into every shot while Chavez only throws light punches most of the time. 

 The reason for the light punches of Chavez is that when he does throw a bomb Vera is not ready because he is not expecting the change of pace and power. An example can be seen in the following video where Chavez throws a very light right hand lead followed by a gentle jab distracting Vera who drops his guard in response. When Chavez sees the opening he all of a sudden changes pace and unloads a brutal right hand to Vera’s chin which would have dropped all but the toughest of opponents.
                      



By cleverly disguising his punches and patiently picking his spots, Chavez can easily outbox Vera. He just needs to keep it up for the full 12 rounds. In the first fight Chavez was gassed towards the end and so stopped moving, allowing Vera to steal the last 3 rounds by fighting hard to the end. This is what caused the controversy, as up to that point Chavez was in control. If fit on the 1st of March, Chavez should win with the same clever boxing described above. Combined with Vera’s incredible toughness and aggression the rematch should make for another great fight.

For a behind the scenes look at the build up to this fight watch Road To Chavez vs Vera II


THE RISE OF A STAR?--------- Lomachenko v Salido

Vasyl Lomachenko vs Orlando Salido


Scheduled for : March 1
HBO Boxing
Chavez v Vera 2 undercard
For WBO World Featherweight (126lbs) title
PREDICTION : Lomachenko by TKO

After dominating amatuer boxing for over 7 years Vasyl Lomachenko is trying to build a reputation in pro boxing as fast as possible. In his second pro fight, Orlando Salido provides him a great opportunity to prove his greatness against a tough opponent and get the respect he deserves.

Lomachenko is a complete fighter. Normally if fighters are elusive they can be a little over defensive (think Rigondeaux or Bradley) or if they are aggressive they often get careless on defense (think Hatton or Pacquiao). Lomachenko is a very rare species of boxer who is both impossibly elusive and can apply constant intelligent pressure.

KEYS TO THE FIGHT

Lomachenko will use his superior footwork to maintain distance, not letting Salido get close. Mikey Garcia did this to great effect on his way to beating Salido in an 8 round decision early in 2013. Salido is really only effective at close range and struggled against the constantly moving Garcia as his footwork is not a strong point. He consequently ends up lunging and bending forward while chasing his more fleet footed opponent around the ring. In the following video this bending forward exposes his chin and Garcia takes advantage with an uppercut knockdown.



Even if he does get in close range against Lomachenko he will often be swinging at air. Take a look at the highlights in the following video of Lomachenko’s impressive pro debut win over Ramirez. He uses perfect head movement to have his opponent constantly miss. Ramirez misses on 11 of 13 punches. His ability to see all these punches coming is amazing.



When Salido misses he will be left off balance and his defence will be compromised. His tendency to bend forward will leave his chin open to body shot punches and uppercuts. In the following video Lomachenko shows the skills required to execute this strategy. He opens up Ramirez by making him miss and then delivers a very accurate and powerful body shot on both knockdowns.



Not only is Lomachenko a great technical fighter with brilliant defensive skills, he is also not afraid to come forward and attack. Vasyl Lomachenko vs Orlando Salido is a not to be missed fight if you want to see boxing at its best. It will be a Lomachenko masterpiece and Salido will provide a great canvass.