Pacquiao vs Bradley 2
MGM Grand Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat, April 12 at 9:00 PMET on HBO Pay Per View
12 rounds for Bradley’s WBO welterweight title
PREDICTION: If Pacquiao cuts off the ring (unlikely) he wins by KO. If not it's 50/50. Best value wager is Bradley by decision at 3.75 (11/4).
On the way to becoming a superstar in boxing Manny Pacquiao beat a lot of great opponents. De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, and Mosley among others. These fighters all fought by constantly attacking and trying to pressure Manny who subsequently destroyed them all in spectacular fashion. But Manny always had a lot of trouble against Juan Manuel Marquez and then Timothy Bradley. Whether or not you think Bradley won the first fight between the two, he certainly made Manny look ordinary.
‘Styles make fights’ and this fight is a bad matchup for Pacquiao’s style. Pac’s attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him, not the other way around.
This has a lot to do with Bradley’s style. ‘Styles make fights’ is a common term in boxing, and this fight is a bad match up for Pacquiao’s style. This is a problem as Pacquiao does not adjust to his opponent well. His attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him. There are two points of emphasis for this fight. One, how will Bradley deal with Pacquiao’s favorite weapon, the much heralded left cross power punch. And two how will Pacquiao deal with Bradley’s elusive movement.
ONE: DEALING WITH PACQUIAO’S LEFT CROSS
In the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight most of Bradley’s strategy was taken from the blueprint to beat Pacquiao provided by Marquez. The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter. Pac throws this shot with full power and can find himself off balance if he misses. Marquez and Bradley both used two main ways to make him miss : step backs and slips. Marquez is a genius counter puncher and this strategy was covered in THE BLUEPRINT article. Bradley does not have the timing, accuracy and subtlety that Marquez has but is still an above average counter puncher. He also has much better mobility and speed than Marquez which he uses very effectively.
The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter.
The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter.
Bradley’s basic strategy can be seen in the following video clip. He will wait patiently until Pacquiao throws the left hand power punch,slide / step back just enough to make Pac miss, then with Pac unbalanced and out of position Bradley throws his various counters. The same thing can be achieved by slipping the left. Slipping enables Bradley to maintain a closer distance.
TWO : CUTTING OFF THE RING
The key to this fight for Manny will be to restrict Bradley’s movement so he can draw him into a brawl. Aggressive high action fights are one of Manny’s specialties and is why boxing fans love him so much. But Bradley will do as much as possible to make this a low action tactical fight. He is very elusive, constantly moving backwards then moving sideways making it hard for his opponent to load up on his punches and throw combinations. The only way to stop this is to cut off the ring. That is, as Bradley moves back up against the ropes and steps to the side, his opponent must mirror this movement trapping him and not letting him into the middle of the ring.
Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks.
In the following clips of the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight below. Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. In contrast, the second part of the video shows how a previous Bradley opponent, Ruslan Provodnikov, “cuts off the ring”. See how Provodnikov moves sideways to block Bradley's escape. He is patient and does not charge forward. With Bradley’s back against the ropes, his movement is restricted as he cannot move backwards. This puts tremendous pressure on the fighter and tires him out. In this fight Bradley was then lured into a brawl and got hurt on a number of occasions. If Provodnikov can almost beat Bradley by cutting off the ring, Manny, with his superior footwork and skills, should be able to dominate by doing the same. The problem for Manny is that he is not patient by nature and it is doubtful he will be able to execute this strategy.
Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks.
In the following clips of the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight below. Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. In contrast, the second part of the video shows how a previous Bradley opponent, Ruslan Provodnikov, “cuts off the ring”. See how Provodnikov moves sideways to block Bradley's escape. He is patient and does not charge forward. With Bradley’s back against the ropes, his movement is restricted as he cannot move backwards. This puts tremendous pressure on the fighter and tires him out. In this fight Bradley was then lured into a brawl and got hurt on a number of occasions. If Provodnikov can almost beat Bradley by cutting off the ring, Manny, with his superior footwork and skills, should be able to dominate by doing the same. The problem for Manny is that he is not patient by nature and it is doubtful he will be able to execute this strategy.
In the lead up to the rematch, Manny’s trainer Freddie Roach has been saying that to beat Bradley, Manny must fight 'all three minutes of every round' and claims Manny let Bradley off the hook in the first fight by being too merciful. This is easy to say, but it wasn’t that Manny took it easy or even had a choice to be more aggressive. It was that Bradley didn't let him. By using his skills in footwork and head movement Bradley was very elusive. This clearly frustrated Manny who consequently reduced his work rate.
This fight is an important crossroads for both fighters but more so for Manny Pacquiao. Used to being the center of the boxing world for so long it's hard to see any point in Manny continuing to box if he loses. On the other hand if he wins, one of the biggest fights in boxing history awaits in the form of a Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Manny is the stronger, faster, more skilled fighter but Tim Bradley maintains that he is the smarter one. Bradley will need every bit of this ring intelligence to beat Manny and in his recent win over Marquez he proved he has the ability. If Manny can restrict Bradley's movement by cutting off the ring and then unloading his power shots, there is little Bradley can do to stop him. However, it does not seem Manny is capable of this adjustment. This fight is therefore likely to play out similar to the last one. If you think that means a certain Pacquiao win, remember Bradley injured both feet early in that fight and was moving up in weight for the first time to the welterweight division. Now with two good feet, big fight experience, and 3 welterweight wins under his belt he should be full of confidence.
This will be a 'coinflip' fight. There is unlikely to be a knockout as Bradley does not have the power and Pacquiao will have trouble finding the elusive Bradley. A decision is the most likely result. For a Pacquiao decision the odds are approx 11/10 (2.10) and Bradley 11/4 (3.75). Therefore a 'Bradley by decision' bet is the best value for what is likely to be a 50/50 fight.
This fight is an important crossroads for both fighters but more so for Manny Pacquiao. Used to being the center of the boxing world for so long it's hard to see any point in Manny continuing to box if he loses. On the other hand if he wins, one of the biggest fights in boxing history awaits in the form of a Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Manny is the stronger, faster, more skilled fighter but Tim Bradley maintains that he is the smarter one. Bradley will need every bit of this ring intelligence to beat Manny and in his recent win over Marquez he proved he has the ability. If Manny can restrict Bradley's movement by cutting off the ring and then unloading his power shots, there is little Bradley can do to stop him. However, it does not seem Manny is capable of this adjustment. This fight is therefore likely to play out similar to the last one. If you think that means a certain Pacquiao win, remember Bradley injured both feet early in that fight and was moving up in weight for the first time to the welterweight division. Now with two good feet, big fight experience, and 3 welterweight wins under his belt he should be full of confidence.
This will be a 'coinflip' fight. There is unlikely to be a knockout as Bradley does not have the power and Pacquiao will have trouble finding the elusive Bradley. A decision is the most likely result. For a Pacquiao decision the odds are approx 11/10 (2.10) and Bradley 11/4 (3.75). Therefore a 'Bradley by decision' bet is the best value for what is likely to be a 50/50 fight.
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